Friday, January 29, 2010

This was you once . . .

And the Monkey Got Lucky


Chart of the Day:
The stock market has been rallying over the past 10 months. So, is the stock market performing well? It all depends on how you measure. When measured in US dollars, the Dow currently trades approximately 29% below its all-time record high. However, when measured with that other world currency (gold), the picture is even more bleak. To help illustrate the point, today's chart presents the Dow divided by the price of one ounce of gold. This results in what is referred to as the Dow / gold ratio or the cost of the Dow in ounces of gold. For example, it currently takes 9.3 ounces of gold to “buy the Dow.” This is considerably less that [sic] the 44.8 ounces back in the year 1999. When priced in gold, the US stock market has been in a bear market for the entire 21st century.

Next, we have today's "unexpected" announcement that 4th quarter GDP was a whopping 5.7 percent, a full percentage point above "Consensus" expectations of 4.7 percent. As with the last three quarterly reportings, we can expect the first revision of that number to knock it down a bit and then the final revision to bring it closer to or even lower than Consensus, if the behavior of the Data Moles at Commerce over the last year is any indication. According to Commerce,
"The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in private inventory investment, a deceleration in imports, and an upturn in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decelerations in federal government spending and in [Personal Consumption Expenditures] PCE."

Oh, excellent, so we can expect some good news regarding that lagging indicator we call employment.

Wrong. According to the Congressional Budget Office:
Hiring rates remain very low, and CBO projects that the unemployment rate will average more than 10 percent during the first half of 2010, before beginning a gradual decline. That pattern is typical of recent recessions, where hiring continues to fall for 6 to 12 months after the economy begins to grow.

SBD is tempted to link to a number of other sucky indicators regarding the economy, the stock market, employment or lack thereof, finance, and investing, but he really doesn't understand any of it and suspects that neither do you. It's better to live in fear and alternately hoard gold and cash and spend like a trailer trash Lotto winner than delude oneself into thinking all these signals can be interpreted into anything resembling a plan that Dave Ramsey wouldn't tweet a small fart to if you called into his show.

More interestingly, and perhaps a better indicator of how to navigate the turbulant waters of this economy, other than getting a job with the government, news comes from the Anglosphere regarding another clown show:
Lusha the Chimpanzee Outperforms 94% of Russia Bankers with Her Investment Portfolio
By Will Stewart

A chimpanzee in Russia has out-performed 94 per cent of the country's investment funds with her portfolio growing by three times in the last year. Moscow TV reported how circus chimp Lusha chose eight companies from a possible 30 to invest her one million roubles - around £21,000. 'She bought successfully and her portfolio grew almost three times. She did better than almost the whole of the rest of the market,' said editor of Russian Finance magazine Oleg Anisimov.

[...]

And her trainer Svetlana Maksimova admitted: 'Money questions should be decided by financiers and politicians. If monkeys get into it, our economy will collapse at once.'

But Pavel Trunin, the head of monetary policy department at the Institute for the Economy in Transition in Moscow, said enviously: 'It shows that financial knowledge does not play a great role in giving forecasts to how the market will change.
It is usually a matter of more or less successful guessing. And the monkey got lucky.'

The monkey, owned by legendary Russian trainer Armando, split her investments between state-owned corporations and private companies.

Ms. Lusha, in a similar predicament to the idiot savant English singing sensation and Monster Susan Boyle upon worldwide recognition of her talents, remains without a fashion and hair waxing consultant.

SBD believes that with a bit of grooming, Lusha could easily replace CNBC's Rebecca Quick and become the new decade's "Money Honey." SBD, himself a hideous chimp, will be watching this gal closely.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Wipe It Down Good

In the Consumer Connection section of the February 2010 issue of Costco Connection, there's this interesting tidbit regarding Apple's warranty policies on crapped out computers:
Apple has decreed that smoke residue inside a computer presents a health risk and a "biohazard," and in [two] reported cases [on Macs exposed to cigarette smoke] customers were denied service, despite having a valid warranty. Apple says that repair centers have the authority to decide whether to service smoky computers, citing OSHA (Occupational Safety and Health
Administration) rules that include nicotine in a list of hazardous substances that could damage the health of someone exposed to them.

However, this is not listed anywhere in the Apple computer warranty's fine print. That means an aggressive consumer might be able to put up a good fight and win the right to repairs.

SBD's contacts inform him that Apple's secret list of harmful substances includes residue from Yankee Candle Company's Red Apple Wreath candles, male-specific residues (crossed matched against browser cookies), spittle drops on the screen, Doritos seasonings in the keyboard, non-Fair Trade dried coffee spills, fecal matter left behind while surfing on the john, cat litter, and any computer exposed to human breath, said to contain the global warming gas, CO2.

Relentless Determination to Pursue It

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen at Foreign Policy:

In 1998, al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden declared that acquiring and using weapons of mass destruction (WMD) was his Islamic duty -- an integral part of his jihad. Systemically, over the course of decades, he dispatched his top lieutenants to attempt to purchase or develop nuclear and biochemical WMD. He has never given up the goal; indeed, in a 2007 video, he repeated his promise to use massive weapons to upend the global status quo, destroy the capitalist hegemony, and help create an Islamic caliphate.

Since the mid-1990s, al Qaeda's WMD procurement efforts have been managed at the most senior levels, under rules of strict compartmentalization from lower levels of the organization, and with central control over possible targets and the timing of prospective attacks.

Graham Allison in Foreign Policy:

In 2007, Congress established a successor to the 9/11 Commission to focus on terrorism using weapons of mass destruction. This bipartisan Commission on the Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism issued its report to Congress and the Obama administration in December 2008. In the commission's unanimous judgment: "it is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013."

Faced with the possibility of an American Hiroshima, many Americans are paralyzed by a combination of denial and fatalism. Either it hasn't happened, so it's not going to happen; or, if it is going to happen, there's nothing we can do to stop it. Both propositions are wrong. The countdown to a nuclear 9/11 can be stopped, but only by realistic recognition of the threat, a clear agenda for action, and relentless determination to pursue it.

Monday, January 25, 2010

The only one I have left is God

Team Rubicon in Haiti:
Johnny kept his finger! He was debrided, his hand was reassembled, and his hand was casted to hold everything together. Now he's on his way back to the hospital for re-eval.

He is also completely alone, with nothing but the clothes on his back. He lost his parents, two brothers, and three sisters. "The only one I have left is God."

Farewell of Marines From Iraq

A letter from Marine SgtMaj Carpenter, the senior Marine enlisted in MNF-W/USF-W:

From: Carpenter SgtMaj Kiplyn (USF-W SGTMAJ)
Sent: Thursday, January 21, 2010 15:55
Subject: FAREWELL OF THE MARINES FROM IRAQ

UNCLASSIFIED

Please pass on,

SgtsMaj, MGySgts, CMDCMs, Marines and Sailors, Saturday, 23 January at 1100 will mark the end of the Marines in Iraq as an organization. II MEF (fwd) will conduct a Transfer of Authority Ceremony with the First Armored Division without a Relief in Place from any incoming unit. USF-W (formally MNF-W) will merge with USD-C (formally MND-Baghdad) and will cease to exist.

After 6 years, over 850 Marines and Sailors killed in combat and another 8800 wounded we have completed our mission. At our peak, we had almost 26,000 Marines and Sailors on deck, close to 200 aircraft, over 380,000 pieces of ground equipment, and were averaging close to 2000 significant events a month. We have added a whole new generation of Heros; and names like Al Nasiriyah, Fallujah and Ramadi will be added to our History books.

Words can't begin to explain the magnitude of effort and sacrifice our Marines and Sailors have gone through to help the Iraqi people. Each year since the initial invasion, Marines and Sailors from all over the Corps have been a part of the revolving I MEF (fwd) and II MEF (Fwd) Commands. Each year has been different with its own sets of unique challenges and each successive year, the incoming organization has built upon the successes of the outgoing organization.

This year was no different, we didn't have anywhere near the level of fighting that previous MEFs have done. However, we did conduct many operations, maintained security, continue to professionalize the Iraqi Security Forces, develop good governance and economics, assisted with the continued establishment of the Rule of Law and oversaw the peaceful transition of the provincial government. We also had one unique mission that we can call our own. That was to finally bring the Marine Corps home. Over the past year, we have simultaneously conducted the responsible drawdown of 24,000 Personnel, over 34 COPs and FOBs, including Baharia, Rawah, and TQ and sent six years worth of equipment out of theater.

For those of you who served with me this year, thank you. It was long and difficult at times, with our own set of challenges, but we did it.

It has been an honor to serve with you.

For those of you who have left your boot prints over here at least once during the last six years; thanks to you too. You set the stage for us to finish the job. It has been costly, it has been challenging, it has taken a while with quite a few dark days. But, in the end, it was worth it.

All Marines and Sailors, including those who remained stateside have contributed to the overall success of the Marines and Sailors in Iraq and; all of us have known someone who didn't make it back alive or has permanent injuries. It is up to us to ensure that those who follow never forgot their sacrifice or what we did here.

Collectively, we have added another illustrious chapter to the successful story of our Marine Corps. One that all of us can be proud of.

Semper Fidelis,

K. Carpenter

Sergeant Major
United States Force - West, Iraq
(Previously Multi National Force -West) II Marine Expeditionary Force (Fwd)
21 January, 2010

UNCLASSIFIED

Thursday, January 21, 2010

All Your Calories Are Belong To Us

In their paper, Calorie Posting in Chain Restaurants (National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 15648 – subscription only), authors Bryan Bollinger, Phillip Leslie, and Alan Sorensen measure the effect of posting calorie information in Starbucks stores on calorie consumption and effect on sales.


We find that mandatory calorie posting does influence consumer behavior at Starbucks, causing average calories per transaction to decrease by 6% (from 247 to 232 calories per transaction).

The effects are long lasting: the calorie reduction in NYC persists for the entire period of our data, which extends 10 months after the calorie posting commenced. Almost all of the effect is related to food purchases—average beverage calories per transaction did not substantially change, while average food calories per transaction fell by 14% (equal to 14 calories per transaction on average). Three quarters (10 calories) of the reduction in calories per transaction is due to consumers buying fewer items, and one quarter (4 calories) of the effect is due to consumers substituting towards lower calorie items.

We find that calorie posting did not cause any statistically significant change in Starbucks revenue overall. Interestingly, we estimate that revenue actually increased by 3% at Starbucks stores located within 100 meters of a Dunkin Donuts (an important competitor to Starbucks in NYC). Hence, there is evidence that calorie posting may have caused some consumers to substitute away from Dunkin Donuts toward Starbucks. The fact that Starbucks’ profitability is unaffected by calorie posting is consistent with the finding that consumers’ beverage choices are unchanged, which is of course Starbucks’ core business.

Starbucks can be expected to use this information to create more tasteless, doughy, sugar free, 100 calorie hockey pucks, placing them next to the $1.95 a piece, 480 calorie, 23 grams of fat Top Pot donuts, and charge $2.25 for peace of mind to suckers ordering 580 calorie white chocolate mocha.

But really, what are the expected long term benefits of the state bothering us all with more tiny fonts to decipher as we rush to work or the big comfy chair in the corner?

The authors conclude:


Calorie reductions on the order of 6% at chain restaurants would yield only modest decreases in body weight, even if those reductions were not offset by increased caloric intake at other meals.

However, as far as regulatory policies go, the costs of calorie posting are very low—so even these small benefits could outweigh the costs. Moreover, the long-run effects of calorie posting are potentially more dramatic. At the margin, calorie posting should encourage restaurants to innovate and offer low-calorie items. We document some preliminary evidence that this is happening in NYC. Also, there may be public education benefits from the policy: consumers’ exposure to calorie information may make them generally more aware and attentive to the nutritional value of the foods they eat.


What's so absurd about this entire study is the charade that people don't know that the donut they are eating is actually a pretty looking wad of lard with nice colored sprinkles on top.

It is none of the government's business what we choose to eat or why we choose to eat it or what the calorie count of what we choose to eat is or of the food we prepare using still legal ingredients in doing so. This is a tiresome rant but it must be said over and over again. In the study above, we have the functionaries, the putative scientists of the nanny state, gathering their bits and pieces of evidences as to why their small intrusions into our lives are completely harmless and have some real marginal benefits that really don't cost anything and may, may, may do this, that and the other thing to allow us to live long enough to prove the statists' point that we are better off living under their rule than under our own individual direction, concern, and yes, caloric ignorance.

On SBD's recent sojourn to Manhattan, every food shelf, every pizza pie, every donut tray and bagel bin, every knish pan and cannoli plate, even every hot dog and falaffel cart on the most foul and disgusting sewer sweat soaked street corner, had an absurd little card next to it announcing the calorie count of the defendant. In every case, it's a cacophonous riot of useless information that gums up the wheels of commerce, and causes nothing but increased guilt and angst in people simply trying to go about their lives. Why a free people puts up with these intrusions by government remains a continuing mystery. Perhaps, over time, these signs will be as well noticed and effective at moderating behavior as the 55 MPH speed limit signs have been in checking people's behavior on the road. Yes, driving too fast can kill you and others but eating too much has yet to be a demonstrated risk to other people. At present, though, you can be ticketed for disobeying the speed limit sign; it is only a matter of time before we are ticketed for violating a calorie count.

Eat 'em' while ya got 'em, folks.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Repudiation

Today.

Repudiation.

One year to the day since his inauguration - Repudiation.

Clean, honest, straight forward repudiation.

One terribly long year of accelerated Hubris and Arrogance and Radicalism meets brick wall.

No airbag.

American exceptionalism on display again.

The People – his people, his blue, blue people in the bluest of the blue land – say No.

That’s today.

Repudiation.

Tomorrow is another story.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Made the Blind See

A breathless ABC investigation shocks the country with this news:

U.S. Military Weapons Inscribed With Secret 'Jesus' Bible Codes
Pentagon Supplier for Rifle Sights Says It Has 'Always' Added New Testament References

By JOSEPH RHEE, TAHMAN BRADLEY and BRIAN ROSS

Coded references to New Testament Bible passages about Jesus Christ are inscribed on high-powered rifle sights provided to the U.S. military by a Michigan company, an ABC News investigation has found.

The sights are used by U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan and in the training of Iraqi and Afghan soldiers. The maker of the sights, Trijicon, has a $660 million multi-year contract to provide up to 800,000 sights to the Marine Corps, and additional contracts to provide sights to the U.S. Army.

U.S. military rules specifically prohibit the proselytizing of any religion in Iraq or Afghanistan and were drawn up in order to prevent criticism that the U.S. was embarked on a religious "Crusade" in its war against al Qaeda and Iraqi insurgents.

[...]

Trijicon confirmed to ABCNews.com that it adds the biblical codes to the sights sold to the U.S. military. Tom Munson, director of sales and marketing for Trijicon, which is based in Wixom, Michigan, said the inscriptions "have always been there" and said there was nothing wrong or illegal with adding them.

ABC did not explain how the imprint of Bible verse in font size 2 on the scopes counts as proselytising. ABC did not ask if the U.S. military allows its soldiers to issue a prayer under their breath as they pull the trigger on the enemy.

Sydney Brillo Duodenum hears through his sources that ABC is widening the scope of its investigation and is about to break a similar piece of news. It turns out that the U.S. military has been buying copies of the Bible containing complete, unexpurgated tracts from both the Old and New Testaments, and distributing them to soldiers, so-called Chaplins, and get this, whose job it is to provide religious ministry to other troops, and, even more distrubing, to do this when they are on the sacred soil of other countries!

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Long Island

Over the river and through the woods to grandfather's house we go.

Sent from my iPhone

Posted via email from Sydney's posterous

NYC- Food

Hot Chocolate

Sent from my iPhone

Posted via email from Sydney's posterous

Saturday, January 16, 2010

NYC - Village of the Damned

You can run, but you can't hide.

Sent from my iPhone

Posted via email from Sydney's posterous

NYC - Skyline

View from that big rock near that big pond you always see in movies

Sent from my iPhone

Posted via email from Sydney's posterous

NYC - Rock Center

Here's a picture of John J. Rockefeller adding final touches to his building.

Sent from my iPhone

Posted via email from Sydney's posterous

George M Cohan statue - Times Square

Oh, buddy, if you only knew.

Sent from my iPhone

Posted via email from Sydney's posterous

Friday, January 15, 2010

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Higher Call


A Higher Call:
Charlie Brown was a B-17 Flying Fortress pilot with the 379th Bomber Group at Kimbolton, England. His B-17 was called ‘Ye Old Pub’ and was in a terrible state, having been hit by flak and fighters. The compass was damaged and they were flying deeper over enemy territory instead of heading home to Kimbolton.

After flying the B-17 over an enemy airfield, a German pilot named Franz Steigler was ordered to take off and shoot down the B-17. When he got near the B-17, he could not believe his eyes. In his words, he ‘had never seen a plane in such a bad state’. The tail and rear section was severely damaged, and the tail gunner wounded. The top gunner was all over the top of the fuselage. The nose was smashed and there were holes everywhere.

Despite having ammunition, Franz flew to the side of the B-17 and looked at Charlie Brown, the pilot. Brown was scared and struggling to control his damaged and blood-stained plane.

Aware that they had no idea where they were going, Franz waved at Charlie to turn 180 degrees. Franz escorted and guided the stricken plane to, and slightly over, the North Sea towards England. He then saluted Charlie Brown and turned away, back to Europe. When Franz landed he told the CO that the plane had been shot down over the sea, and never told the truth to anybody. Charlie Brown and the remains of his crew told all at their briefing, but were ordered never to talk about it.

More than 40 years later, Charlie Brown wanted to find the Luftwaffe pilot who saved the crew. After years of research, Franz was found. He had never talked about the incident, not even at post-war reunions.

They met in the USA at a 379th Bomber Group reunion, together with 25 people who are alive now – all because Franz never fired his guns that day.

When asked why he didn’t shoot them down Stigler later said, “I didn’t have the heart to finish those brave men. I flew beside them for a long time. They were trying desperately to get home and I was going to let them do that. I could not have shot at them. It would have been the same as shooting at a man in a parachute”.

H/T Sean Linnane

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Stamp It Out

The United States Postal Service has released its schedule of stampage for 2010. This is the Post Office's annual effort to capture the country's culture and history on a small sticky piece of paper and to remind Americans, at least the ones still paying their bills through the mail, that they really don't know shit about the country and its famous citizens and places.

This year, really, not much to complain about here. A celebrity saint, a celebrity star, celebrity cowboys and the dispossessed sports celebrity. Fairly standard fair for stamps.


SBD often uses the fancy stamps for bills and whatnot. This past year he has used the Simpsons series exclusively for his monthly payment to his city social club, and yet his membership persists. So, it's doubtful that the letter slicer at the club or the mortgage company or the insurance company is giving two seconds thought to the postage used, otherwise SBD would be an uninsured homeless social outcast. These stamps are really just a small opportunity for the letter sender to make a statement about themselves, because it's so hard these days to find a billboard on which to declare one's stand on who the really important fake cowboys were. SBD uses the Simpsons stamps because they say, "I'm a fake counterculture nerd who reveres a cartoon that respects nothing and no one, including you. In fact, Fuck You, here's my check, don't sit on it, and pass me a donut."

Other stamp groups will include Sunday Funnies, Famous Sailors, and Abstract Expressionists:




Boring!!!! How about they let us doodle in the upper corner of an envelope and write $.44 over it?

The only stamp offered this year that allows SBD to send a hidden message to his creditors is this one:

In other news, FedEx and UPS announced that they are sticking with their purple, white and gray and brown and white, respectively, untearable bags and boxes and hideous, incomprehensible bar code labels. Both companies cited the need to stay competitive, efficient and focused on the business at hand - sending people's crap from one end of the country to the other as quickly as possible, and to keep costs down by not hiring artists and establishing committees to sweat over the most politically correct collection of cultural icons and not spending gobs of money advertising the availability of special stamps featuring Denis the Freakn' Menace.

Perhaps in 2011, the Postal Service can celebrate entrepreneurialism and efficiency with stamps featuring head to head competitors, such as FedEx and UPS.